Organisations and Leadership of the Future 1: ‘The Future’

In response to requests from business leaders, I gave a talk in January 2021 on ‘Organisations and Leadership of the Future’. As the proverb ‘You can tell Thursday is coming from Wednesday’ suggests, the future course of a matter can be predicted to a certain extent based on current trends. Whilst partially acknowledging the uncertainty brought about by the pandemic we are currently experiencing, I asked the question: ‘Is the world changing because of certain events, or are certain events occurring because the world is changing?” For whilst it was possible to say that the business world was undergoing change, it was also true that reactions were either accelerating or decelerating as catalysts came into play. 

In the vision of the future at the heart of this subject, systemic and human elements can be defined as the fundamental drivers of change. Systemic and human dynamics in business life are akin to the ‘Which came first, the chicken or the egg?’ paradox. 

When examining systemic dynamics through a linear flow of time, the First Industrial Revolution begins with the invention of the steam engine in England in 1763 and continues to develop up to the present day. However, this growth process is not stable, that is, it is not linear. Periods of rapid expansion are generally followed by periods of crisis and impoverishment, which lead to a decline in social welfare. This cyclical development process inherent to capitalism was first examined in detail by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff. In 1925, following his research, the economist Nikolai Kondratieff identified that these changes followed a sinusoidal pattern rather than a linear progression; however, he did not put forward a comprehensive theory to explain these fluctuations. Following 1925, many scholars contributed to this theory. Joseph Schumpeter, through his theory of the business cycle, explained the cause of these long waves as follows: the emergence of new products, new services and new processes. Carlota Perez demonstrated that these technological revolutions are accompanied by a newly created techno-economic paradigm, and that these revolutions, together with this new paradigm, generate a new wave of development lasting approximately 50 or 60 years.  It is noted that we are currently experiencing the fifth wave and are in the process of transitioning to the sixth wave. 

Each wave creates its own new environment, and after a while, the number of firms utilising this technology increases as a result of the imitations arising from the replication of this technology. As this wave begins to consolidate within itself due to increased competition, it enters a period of stagnation. As the value generated by the current wave differs from that generated in the financial markets, this trend eventually fades, leading to a minor recession; subsequently, a new wave emerges with the introduction of a new technology. The timing of these waves also varies from country to country, and phase differences may arise. Whilst developed countries are currently experiencing the end of the fifth wave and the beginning of the sixth, it is possible to observe that developing countries are still somewhere within the fifth wave. At the start of a new wave, the effects and benefits of the previous wave can be observed. The flow created by these benefits can be likened to a spiral. The newly formed wave encompasses the previous one, creating a higher-level business model and ways of working, as well as a different perspective. For example, the impact of the fourth wave on the automotive sector gave rise to the concept of lean production, and the fifth wave has continued to develop by incorporating this concept as well. It is anticipated that the sixth wave, which will emerge in the future, will also encompass the flexible organisational structures that emerged in the fifth wave. 

As the sixth wave approaches, major investors in particular are attempting to anticipate the areas in which this wave will take shape. In line with the predictions of many scientists, this field will focus on ‘sustainability’ – specifically, the sustainability of the ecosystem through environmental technologies and the more efficient use of resources, and human ‘sustainability’ through the healthcare sector; new phenomena arising from the application of quantum mechanical formulas at the subatomic level (to nanoparticles), alongside nanotechnologies and biotechnologies. It is predicted that this new wave may create an entirely new sector or shift the healthcare and/or environmental technology sectors away from their current positions. 

People may harbour many dreams for the future, but once they have depleted their resources – starting with the Earth – they will be unable to realise any of these dreams. Based on this premise, the concept of sustainability can be defined as one of the indispensable elements for humanity to realise its dreams for the future. In order to safeguard their own livelihoods and future, people also wish to ensure environmental sustainability. Environmental sustainability here is not limited solely to concepts such as carbon footprint, green labelling, the need for efficient use of resources, and renewable energy sources. It refers to a broader perception of the environment that also encompasses social well-being. This new level of perception brings with it a highly holistic and inclusive understanding of unity. 

When describing the butterfly effect – the idea that ‘if a butterfly flaps its wings in one place, a storm will arise elsewhere’ – this phrase has become much more understandable to all of us, particularly in the wake of the pandemic. Now, when a statement such as “if a child in Africa drinks contaminated water, even if all children in Europe drink clean water, they will suffer from stomach ache within a day or two” is made, no one is in a position to object to it. It can therefore be argued that the concept of sustainability—whether it concerns the entire ecosystem or simply human sustainability—imposes a meaning that encompasses social welfare. 

In this regard, it would not be an inaccurate prediction to suggest that, in the sixth wave, the boundaries between levels of social and individual well-being will be eroded and ultimately transcended. Such an understanding may not only lead people to reconsider the extent to which they can remain independent of all other beings, but will also create a need to redefine certain concepts and values.

As mentioned in the examples and concepts discussed above, research indicates that the concepts of freedom and independence brought about by the Enlightenment will be re-examined in the sixth wave. If every action taken and every decision made is to have an impact on global sustainability and social welfare, people will begin to question the extent to which they can act independently, and this will lead to the reshaping of concepts in the sixth wave.

In the fifth wave, the convergence brought about by technology was observed in physical objects and has now become quite widespread. For example, when we look at a mobile phone, we can see that it represents a convergence of many objects—such as a voice recorder, a watch, a calendar, a computer and a radio—into a single physical object. In the sixth wave, it is predicted that this convergence may occur within the human body through new phenomena created by nanotechnology and biotechnology. Examples of this include research carried out worldwide, such as the production of a foetus from a goat embryo, the cultivation of organs in animals, the creation of limbs using 3D printers, and the development of microchips capable of restoring the brain to its former capacity in cases of dementia and Alzheimer’s disease. These new phenomena created by technology are emerging as indicators that humans, matter and animals will converge within the human body, bringing to the fore a new vision of ‘humanity’ that we are beginning to hear about more frequently today.

The sixth wave not only demonstrates that the boundaries between social welfare and individual well-being are eroding—or have already been crossed—in terms of sustainability, but it is also pushing the boundaries between humans, animals, matter and digitalisation. Fifty years ago, people were not engaged in the question ‘What makes me human?’, whereas today we are grappling with this very question and using matter as our point of reference. Fifty years from now, whilst these same questions will persist, people’s frame of reference will no longer be based on the material world—due to its convergence with the spiritual—but will instead be grounded in spiritual concepts. Consequently, the emergence of spiritual concepts and spirituality in this context, and the approach to the concept known as ‘post-human’, can be cited as one of the topics expected to be examined through new waves of inquiry. 

It is well known that each wave establishes its own terminology and methodology, prioritising its own values. At the same time, the internal pressure of the new wave continues to build in relation to international studies, arrangements and the necessary regulations; it is anticipated that the resulting conjunctural pressure will have significant repercussions on organisations, which represent one of the points where the new world system intersects with humanity.

Pınar Ersoy Özdoğru