Organizations and Leadership of the Future 1: "The Future"

In response to requests from businesspeople Organizations and Leadership of the Future I gave a speech about this in January 2021. As the proverb "Thursday's arrival is evident from Wednesday" suggests, the course of a project can be predicted to a certain extent based on its current trajectory. While partially accepting the uncertainty brought about by the pandemic we are experiencing, I asked the question, "Is the world changing because of certain events, or are certain events happening because the world is changing?" This is because it was possible to say that the business world was undergoing change, but that reactions were accelerating or slowing down with the intervention of catalysts. 

At the heart of the matter, systemic and human elements can be defined as the fundamental elements of change in the vision of the future. Systemic and human dynamics in business life are like the "Which came first, the chicken or the egg?" paradox. 

When examining systemic dynamics through a linear flow of time, the First Industrial Revolution began with the invention of the steam engine in England in 1763 and has continued to develop up to the present day. However, this growth process is not stable, i.e., it is not linear. Periods of rapid expansion are usually followed by periods of crisis and impoverishment that lead to a decline in social welfare. This fluctuating development process of capitalism was first studied in detail by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff. In 1925, economist Nikolai Kondratieff's research revealed that these changes occurred in a sine wave pattern rather than a linear flow, but he did not propose a comprehensive theory to explain these fluctuations. After 1925, many scientists contributed to this theory. Joseph Schumpeter explained the reason for the formation of these long waves with his business cycle theory: the emergence of new products, new services, and new processes. Carlota Perez revealed that these technological revolutions were accompanied by a newly created techno-economic paradigm and that technological revolutions created a new wave of development lasting 50 or 60 years with this new paradigm. It is stated that we are currently experiencing the fifth wave and are in the process of transitioning to the sixth wave. 

Each wave creates its own new environment, and after a while, the number of companies using this technology increases as a result of imitations that emerge from copies of this technology. This wave, created by increased competition, begins to consolidate within itself and enters a period of stagnation. The value produced by the current wave differs from the value it produces in the financial market, causing this trend to fade after a certain period of time and leading to a small-scale recession. Subsequently, a new wave is formed with the introduction of new technology. The timing of the waves also varies from country to country, and phase differences may occur. Today, while developed countries are experiencing the end of the fifth wave and the beginning of the sixth wave, it is possible to observe that developing countries are somewhere within the fifth wave. At the beginning of a new wave, the effects and benefits of the previous wave can be observed. The flow created by these benefits can be likened to a spiral. The newly formed wave encompasses the previous one, creating a higher business model, different ways of doing business, and a different level of perspective. For example, the impact of the fourth wave on the automotive industry led to the emergence of the concept of lean manufacturing, and the fifth wave has continued to develop by encompassing this concept. It is anticipated that the sixth wave, which will emerge in the future, will also encompass the flexible organizational structures that emerged in the fifth wave. 

By the time the sixth wave arrives, major investors in particular will be attempting to predict the areas where this wave will emerge. In line with the predictions of many scientists, these areas will be in environmental technologies and the more efficient use of resources for the sustainability of the ecosystem, and in the health sector for human sustainability, based on the concept of "sustainability." It will occur through the application of quantum mechanics formulas at the subatomic level (nano-particles), leading to new phenomena and nanotechnologies, as well as through biotechnologies. It is predicted that the new wave will create a new sector or shift the health and/or environmental technologies sector from its current position to another. 

People can dream many dreams about the future, but once they have exhausted their resources, starting with the world itself, they will be unable to realize any of these dreams. Based on this statement, the concept of sustainability can be defined as one of the essential elements for realizing people's dreams for the future. People want to guarantee environmental sustainability in order to guarantee their own lives and futures. Environmental sustainability here is not limited to concepts such as carbon footprint, green label, the need for efficient use of resources, and renewable energy sources. It refers to a broader environmental perception that also includes social welfare. This new level of perception brings with it a highly holistic, inclusive sense of unity. 

When describing the butterfly effect, the phrase "if a butterfly flaps its wings in one place, it causes a storm in the world" has become more understandable to all of us, especially after the pandemic. Now, when someone says, "If a child in Africa drinks dirty water, even if all children in Europe drink clean water, they will have stomachaches within a day or two," no one can argue with that statement. This shows that the concept of sustainability, whether it applies to the entire ecosystem or simply to the sustainability of humans themselves, imposes a meaning that encompasses social welfare. 

In this regard, it would not be wrong to predict that the boundaries between social welfare and individual welfare levels will be eroded and overcome in the sixth wave. Such an understanding may cause people to reconsider how independent they can be from all other entities, and it will create a need to redefine certain concepts and values.

As mentioned in the examples and concepts discussed above, research indicates that the concepts of freedom and independence brought about by the Enlightenment will be re-examined in the sixth wave. If every action taken and every measure implemented will impact global sustainability and social welfare, individuals will begin to question how independently they can act, and this will lead to the reshaping of concepts in the sixth wave.

Beşinci dalgada teknolojinin ortaya çıkardığı yakınsama madde üzerinde görülmüş ve günümüzde oldukça yaygın hale gelmiştir. Örneğin bir cep telefonuna baktığımızda, aslında onun bir ses kayıt cihazı, saat, takvim, bilgisayar, radyo gibi pek çok maddeyi alarak bir madde üzerinde yakınsanması olduğu görülmektedir. Altıncı dalgada ise bu yakınsamanın nano-teknolojiler ve bio-teknolojilerin yaratacağı yeni fenomenler ile insan bedeni üzerinde olabileceği öngörülmektedir. Buna dünyada yapılan keçi fetüsünde üretilen cenin, bir hayvanda üretilen organlar, üç boyutlu yazıcılar ile uzuvlar yapılması, demans ve Alzheimer hastalıkları için beyni eski kapasitesine getirebilecek mikroçipler üretilmesi gibi çalışmalar örnek olarak gösterilebilir. Teknolojinin yaratacağı yeni fenomenlerle insan, madde ve hayvanın insan bedeninde yakınsanacağının birer göstergesi olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır ve bu günümüzde daha sık duymaya başladığımız yeni bir “insan” öngörüsünü gündeme getirmektedir.

Altıncı dalga sürdürülebilirlik noktasında sadece toplumsal refah ve bireysel refah arasındaki sınırların aşınmakta-aşılmakta olduğunu göstermemekte aynı zamanda insan, hayvan, madde ve digitalizayon arasındaki sınırları da zorlamaktadır. Bundan elli yıl önce kişiler “beni insan yapan şey nedir?” sorgulaması içinde değilken, bugün bizler bu sorgulamayı yaşamakta ve maddeyi referans almaktayız. Bundan elli yıl sonra ise aynı sorgulamalar devam etmekle birlikte, artık kişilerin referansı maddenin yakınsanması nedeni ile madde üzerinden olamayacak ve mânevi kavramlar üzerinden olacaktır. Dolayısıyla spiritüellik kavramları ve maneviyatın burada devreye girmesi ve “post-human” denilen kavrama yaklaşılması yeni dalgalar ile sorgulanması öngörülen konulardan biri olarak örneklendirilebilir. 

Her dalganın kendi terminolojisini ve metodolojisini oluşturduğu, kendi değerlerini önceliklendirdiği bilinmektedir. Bir yandan da milletler arası çalışmalar, düzenlemeler ve ihtiyaç duyulan regülasyonlar için yeni dalganın kendi iç basıncı oluşmaya devam etmekte, oluşan konjonktürel basıncın yeni dünya sistemi ile insanın kesiştiği noktalardan biri olan organizasyonlara da ciddi yansımaları olacağı öngörülmektedir.

Pınar Ersoy Özdoğru